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Spatial synchrony, the tendency for populations across space to show correlated fluctuations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, linked to central topics of ecology such as population cycling, extinction risk, and ecosystem stability. A common mechanism of spatial synchrony is the Moran effect, whereby spatially synchronized environmental signals drive population dynamics and hence induce population synchrony. After reviewing recent progress in understanding Moran effects, we here elaborate a general theory of how Moran effects of different environmental drivers acting on the same populations can interact, either synergistically or destructively, to produce either substantially more or markedly less population synchrony than would otherwise occur. We provide intuition for how this newly recognized mechanism works through theoretical case studies and application of our theory to California populations of giant kelp. We argue that Moran interactions should be common. Our theory and analysis explain an important new aspect of a fundamental feature of spatiotemporal population dynamics.

 

Giant kelp and bull kelp forests are increasingly at risk from marine heatwave events, herbivore outbreaks, and the loss or alterations in the behavior of key herbivore predators. The dynamic floating canopy of these kelps is well-suited to study via satellite imagery, which provides high temporal and spatial resolution data of floating kelp canopy across the western United States and Mexico. However, the size and complexity of the satellite image dataset has made ecological analysis difficult for scientists and managers. To increase accessibility of this rich dataset, we created Kelpwatch, a web-based visualization and analysis tool. This tool allows researchers and managers to quantify kelp forest change in response to disturbances, assess historical trends, and allow for effective and actionable kelp forest management. Here, we demonstrate how Kelpwatch can be used to analyze long-term trends in kelp canopy across regions, quantify spatial variability in the response to and recovery from the 2014 to 2016 marine heatwave events, and provide a local analysis of kelp canopy status around the Monterey Peninsula, California. We found that 18.6% of regional sites displayed a significant trend in kelp canopy area over the past 38 years and that there was a latitudinal response to heatwave events for each kelp species. The recovery from heatwave events was more variable across space, with some local areas like Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur showing high recovery while kelp canopies around the Monterey Peninsula continued a slow decline and patchy recovery compared to the rest of the Central California region. Kelpwatch provides near real time spatial data and analysis support and makes complex earth observation data actionable for scientists and managers, which can help identify areas for research, monitoring, and management efforts.

 

The use of multispectral geostationary satellites to study aquatic ecosystems improves the temporal frequency of observations and mitigates cloud obstruction, but no operational capability presently exists for the coastal and inland waters of the United States. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on the current iteration of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites, termed the$R$Series (GOES-R), however, provides sub-hourly imagery and the opportunity to overcome this deficit and to leverage a large repository of existing GOES-R aquatic observations. The fulfillment of this opportunity is assessed herein using a spectrally simplified, two-channel aquatic algorithm consistent with ABI wave bands to estimate the diffuse attenuation coefficient for photosynthetically available radiation,$K_d(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R})$. First, anin situABI dataset was synthesized using a globally representative dataset of above- and in-water radiometric data products. Values of$K_d(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R})$were estimated by fitting the ratio of the shortest and longest visible wave bands from thein situABI dataset to coincident,in situ$K_d(\mathrm{P}\mathrm{A}\mathrm{R})$data products. The algorithm was evaluated based on an iterative cross-validation analysis in which 80% of the dataset was randomly partitioned for fitting and the remaining 20% was used for validation. The iteration producing the median coefficient of determination ($R^2$) value (0.88) resulted in a root mean square difference of$0.319{\mathrm{m}}^{-<\#comment/>1}$, or 8.5% of the range in the validation dataset. Second, coincident mid-day images of central and southern California from ABI and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were compared using Google Earth Engine (GEE). GEE default ABI reflectance values were adjusted based on a near infrared signal. Matchups between the ABI and MODIS imagery indicated similar spatial variability ($R^2=0.60$) between ABI adjusted blue-to-red reflectance ratio values and MODIS default diffuse attenuation coefficient for spectral downward irradiance at 490 nm,$K_d(490)$, values. This work demonstrates that if an operational capability to provide ABI aquatic data products was realized, the spectral configuration of ABI would potentially support a sub-hourly, visible aquatic data product that is applicable to water-mass tracing and physical oceanography research.

 

Kelp forests are complex underwater habitats that form the foundation of many nearshore marine environments and provide valuable services for coastal communities. Despite their ecological and economic importance, increasingly severe stressors have resulted in declines in kelp abundance in many regions over the past few decades, including the North Coast of California, USA. Given the significant and sustained loss of kelp in this region, management intervention is likely a necessary tool to reset the ecosystem and geospatial data on kelp dynamics are needed to strategically implement restoration projects. Because canopy‐forming kelp forests are distinguishable in aerial imagery, remote sensing is an important tool for documenting changes in canopy area and abundance to meet these data needs. We used small unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) to survey emergent kelp canopy in priority sites along the North Coast in 2019 and 2020 to fill a key data gap for kelp restoration practitioners working at local scales. With over 4,300 hectares surveyed between 2019 and 2020, these surveys represent the two largest marine resource‐focused UAV surveys conducted in California to our knowledge. We present remote sensing methods using UAVs and a repeatable workflow for conducting consistent surveys, creating orthomosaics, georeferencing data, classifying emergent kelp and creating kelp canopy maps that can be used to assess trends in kelp canopy dynamics over space and time. We illustrate the impacts of spatial resolution on emergent kelp canopy classification between different sensors to help practitioners decide which data stream to select when asking restoration and management questions at varying spatial scales. Our results suggest that high spatial resolution data of emergent kelp canopy from UAVs have the potential to advance strategic kelp restoration and adaptive management.

 

Satellite and aerial imagery have been used extensively for mapping the abundance and distribution of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) in southern California. There is now great potential for using unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) to map kelp canopy at very high resolutions. However, tides and currents have been shown to affect the amount of floating kelp canopy on the water surface, and the impacts of these processes on remotely sensed kelp estimates in this region have not been fully quantified. UAVs were used to map fine-scale changes in canopy area due to tidal height and current speed at kelp forests off the coast of Palos Verdes, CA and Santa Barbara, CA. An automated method for detecting kelp canopy was developed that was 67% accurate using red-green-blue (RGB) UAV imagery and 93% accurate using multispectral UAV imagery across a range of weather, ocean, and illumination conditions. Increases in tidal height of 1 m reduced the amount of floating kelp canopy by 15% in Santa Barbara and by over 30% in Palos Verdes. The effect of current speed on visible kelp canopy was inconclusive, but there was a trend towards lower canopy area with increased current speed. Therefore, while tidal height and current speed can introduce significant variability to estimates of kelp abundance, the magnitude of this variability is site specific. Still, UAVs are a valuable tool for mapping of kelp canopy and can provide greater spatial resolution and temporal coverage than is possible from many satellite sensors. This data can provide insight into the patterns and drivers of high frequency fluctuations in kelp abundance. 

Abstract Climate change is altering species’ range limits and transforming ecosystems. For example, warming temperatures are leading to the range expansion of tropical, cold-sensitive species at the expense of their cold-tolerant counterparts. In some temperate and subtropical coastal wetlands, warming winters are enabling mangrove forest encroachment into salt marsh, which is a major regime shift that has significant ecological and societal ramifications. Here, we synthesized existing data and expert knowledge to assess the distribution of mangroves near rapidly changing range limits in the southeastern USA. We used expert elicitation to identify data limitations and highlight knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of past, current, and future range dynamics. Mangroves near poleward range limits are often shorter, wider, and more shrublike compared to their tropical counterparts that grow as tall forests in freeze-free, resource-rich environments. The northern range limits of mangroves in the southeastern USA are particularly dynamic and climate sensitive due to abundance of suitable coastal wetland habitat and the exposure of mangroves to winter temperature extremes that are much colder than comparable range limits on other continents. Thus, there is need for methodological refinements and improved spatiotemporal data regarding changes in mangrove structure and abundance near northern range limits in the southeastern USA. Advancing understanding of rapidly changing range limits is critical for foundation plant species such as mangroves, as it provides a basis for anticipating and preparing for the cascading effects of climate-induced species redistribution on ecosystems and the human communities that depend on their ecosystem services. 

These data describe 1987-2019 time series of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) biomass and associated environmental variables (wave height, nitrate concentration, climate indices) at quarterly and annual time intervals. Data for spatially resolvable variables (giant kelp biomass, wave height, nitrate concentration) pertain to 361 coastline segments (500 m length) in southern and central California where giant kelp was persistent over the sampling period. Data are contained in 5 tables: 1) quarterly time series of giant kelp biomass, wave height, and nitrate concentrations for 361 coastline segments; 2) quarterly time series of aspatial climate indices (NPGO, MEI, PDO); 3) annual time series of giant kelp biomass, wave height, and nitrate concentrations for 361 coastline segments; 4) annual time series of aspatial climate indices (NPGO, MEI, PDO); 5) locations (latitude and longitude of center) of coastline segments. Kelp data are derived from satellite imagery using empirical relationships. Wave data are derived from an empirically validated swell propagation model. Nitrate data are derived from empirical relationships with remotely-sensed sea surface temperature.